SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections noticed each vital beneficial properties for far-right events – in France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European Folks’s Occasion (EPP), which noticed its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This bolstered the EPP’s position as a central participant within the European Parliament and a key voice in EU coverage and management appointments.
The massive winners amongst far-right events have been Marine Le Pen’s Nationwide Rally in France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, that means the far proper’s voices will probably be extra influential within the European Parliament on points starting from immigration to Ukraine to spending generally.
To investigate the winners and losers within the EU elections and their impression on European affairs, The Cipher Transient spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and at the moment President of the EPP’s assume tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Research. Dzurinda mentioned the potential impression of the elections in a dialog with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Transient’s Chief Worldwide Correspondent. Dzurinda additionally spoke in regards to the “large problem” of disinformation campaigns in Europe, and voiced help for more durable controls over social media content material.
THE CONTEXT
- The middle-right European Folks’s Occasion (EPP) secured 190 seats within the European Parliament within the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has 1 / 4 of the physique’s 720 seats, making it finest poised to set European Union.
- Far-right teams additionally made main beneficial properties throughout the bloc, together with in France and Italy. General, some 150 seats within the European Parliament have been received by far-right events.
- Ursula von der Leyen is in search of a second time period as president of the European Fee. She is a transparent frontrunner, because the lead candidate of the European Folks’s Occasion.
- French President Emmanuel Macron known as for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after beneficial properties by France’s far-right within the European Parliament elections.
- U.Okay. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak additionally has known as for a snap election, in Britain’s case for July 4, months sooner than basic elections have been anticipated.
THE INTERVIEW
Mikuláš Dzurinda
Mikuláš Dzurinda is the previous prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held numerous positions in authorities since first coming into politics in 1990. As soon as he turned prime minister and fashioned a coalition authorities in 1998, Dzurinda launched far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to start the method of becoming a member of the EU and NATO. After being re-elected in 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to grow to be a member of the EU and NATO in 2004, a course of which he actively took half in from the start. Slovakia gained independence in 1993.
This interview has been frivolously edited for brevity and readability.
The Cipher Transient: A lot of the worldwide media reported in regards to the far-right beneficial properties on the EU elections. How do you’re taking the outcomes of the elections?
Dzurinda: I don’t assume that the scenario is so dramatic. Look, it’s true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some beneficial properties, however we, the European Folks’s Occasion, received much more. I’m somewhat extra optimistic than pessimistic. I’m completely happy as a result of my household, the European Folks’s Occasion, received closely and that’s large. I’d say there’s a large coalition potential on our facet.
The Cipher Transient: What do you concentrate on the ends in particular person international locations – about Germany, for instance, and Hungary? There have been some sudden outcomes, perhaps in each, and in Slovakia as properly.
Dzurinda: You’re proper. However look, let’s begin with the primary. In my eyes, the worst is France. As a result of Madame Le Pen will not be solely very sturdy today, she can also be very harmful in my thoughts and France issues quite a bit. We each know that very properly.
A greater scenario is in Germany. On one facet, the AFD (Different for Germany) can also be harmful and so they completed in second place, successful over the socialists. There may be additionally large excellent news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the longer term German chancellor, will assist Europe and transatlantic relations quite a bit.
Even in Hungary, at first sight, you may be pessimistic as a result of Viktor Orban remains to be there. However there’s additionally large excellent news in Hungary. The brand new chief of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored virtually 30%. He’s younger, he’s charismatic. He needs to hitch the European Folks’s Occasion, our household, so I take Hungary (as) a optimistic somewhat than adverse.
The Cipher Transient: He created the celebration three months in the past – and that’s what was stunning to all people in Hungary, that in a single day he gained this unbelievable variety of votes and seats.
Dzurinda: Precisely, and it demonstrates that folks perhaps are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians notice very properly that the EU is a superb challenge, that this can be very necessary additionally for them, for the Hungarians. The identical scenario in Slovakia – I’m very sad as a result of we, the EPP household, suffered – we misplaced three of 4 MEPs. However once more, the excellent news is that our liberal political celebration received the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) Fico. So there’s additionally an excellent hope in Slovakia, and in the end we’ll beat these anti-European forces.
The Cipher Transient: Let’s discuss a bit extra about France. President Macron known as early elections in France based mostly on the outcomes of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is {that a} good resolution? Dangerous resolution?
The Cipher Transient: It’s perhaps a somewhat chaotic resolution. I can think about how depressed Mr. Macron turned after watching the ultimate outcome. And on the opposite facet, as a politician, I can perceive that one thing needed to be executed by him. So to some extent, his resolution to name for a snap election may be understood. I count on a brand new cohabitation in France, when Mr. Macron will keep because the president of the nation and the federal government will probably be dominated by the Nationwide Rally, (the celebration of ) Madame Le Pen, with perhaps a brand new star, a brand new prime minister. There’s a saying that every little thing unhealthy comes with one thing good, and perhaps the excellent news is that the celebration of Madame Le Pen will probably be actually incompetent after operating the nation for half a 12 months, one 12 months or two years, we’ll see. However anyway, it’s a stunning growth there.
The Cipher Transient: So perhaps that’s what President Macron is relying on – to allow them to fail?
Dzurinda: Possibly. Possibly it’s to some extent an emotional resolution, a chaotic resolution. However on the opposite facet, there’s additionally one thing rational past that.
The Cipher Transient: Let’s speak about (European Fee President) Ursula von der Leyen. It looks as if her positions are very sturdy and she or he made it identified that she needs a second time period because the president. How do you assume her probabilities look? There have been conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as properly. Do you assume that’s doable?
Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s place at the moment is way stronger than earlier than the elections. Some individuals are drained or fed up along with her, as a result of don’t overlook, we went by means of main crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and final however not least, we confronted the conflict of Russia in opposition to Ukraine. So one can think about that some folks have been a bit drained with this fee. However after the elections, it’s clear that she has executed an amazing job. She was very affected person. She was capable of attain compromises. And you recognize very properly that Europe is predicated on compromise.
So at the moment I’m fairly optimistic. And I imagine that many individuals, and plenty of MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, could have been hesitating about her, however now they notice very properly that there’s just one choice left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And that is my expectation.
On the subject of technique, she’s performed properly in my eyes. She says, Let’s speak about three main points: The primary is the rule of legislation, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European Home. And quantity three is Ukraine, and I’m prepared to speak to each political faction who’s following and respecting these three fundamental ideas.
She is opening the door not just for the Greens from the left, but additionally from the ECR from the appropriate. Madame Meloni made us shocked up to now. The girl will not be solely very rational, but additionally devoted to democracy, rule of legislation, and final however not least, to Ukraine as properly.
The Cipher Transient: Do you assume there will probably be a brand new (European) excessive commissioner for protection?
Dzurinda: I’d vote for that. Possibly you can be shocked. However on the Marten Centre, the assume tank of the Folks’s Occasion, we got here up with the thought of European protection as an integral a part of NATO in 2016. On the time, I used to be confronted by many individuals in Europe (asking), What do I need? However we thought, particularly after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the scenario is severe. And I nonetheless imagine that this case could be very severe. America is busy, and will probably be very, very busy with China, with the Indo-Pacific, and we’ve got Ukraine. That is our neighbor, our instant neighborhood. Now we’ve got the Center East disaster and plenty of different challenges. We must be stronger, and we have to grow to be a dependable, full-fledged associate of the US on this transatlantic household.
The Cipher Transient: Now we have snap elections developing within the UK, in France. Now we have elections in the US. What are your expectations of those elections and what do you assume their impression can be on transatlantic relations?
Dzurinda: It is a essential difficulty. The axis between the US and the UK was so necessary and essential within the time of the Chilly Warfare, for safety, for the way forward for transatlantic relations and democratic international locations.
In these occasions, perhaps there’s not a lot motive to be optimistic, however I wish to be optimistic. I believe because of the custom and likewise because of the understanding that we’d like one another. Even in the US, I’m not so tragically pessimistic. On the subject of the potential victory of Donald Trump, I imagine that this axis between the UK and the US will proceed, and that the EU ought to assist. The EU ought to contribute on this route to spice up this custom of the axis.
The most important query mark in my eyes is France. On one facet, the French president could be very sturdy. You realize very properly that he has very sturdy competence. On the opposite facet, I’m pondering increasingly in regards to the subsequent presidential elections in France. If the development continues, it implies that Madame Le Pen on the finish of the day will grow to be the French president. On this case, I imagine that she’s going to modify a bit her method. Everybody was shocked by Madame Meloni’s insurance policies (in Italy). I imagine that additionally within the case of Marine Le Pen we could also be shocked. Consider me, I’ve some expertise, and the phrase appears to be like completely different should you look (on the scenario) if you’re on the horse, in comparison with when you find yourself standing subsequent to the horse – the scenario is totally completely different. You may have duty. Persons are not solely not solely watching however anticipating.
The Cipher Transient: I’d like to speak to you about disinformation. Recently, in democracies, this has been a really massive difficulty. In some circumstances, there are claims that disinformation really performed some position within the consequence of the elections. Did you see it as a problem throughout these elections within the EU? Do you see it as a bigger difficulty and do you have got any options on how you can counter it?
Dzurinda: There’s a large problem dealing with us – this disinformation and propaganda. We’re very completely happy that we’re free, and you’ll write what you need or you possibly can publish on social media, however what we miss is the connection between freedom and duty. So now we must always assume extra significantly about this second dimension of duty. I’m going to say one thing unpopular: (we must always take into consideration) how you can management social media, how you can make folks answerable for every little thing which they’re publishing.
It isn’t simple. Russian propaganda particularly – it is rather, very influential. It occurs not solely to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the international locations of the previous communist bloc. It occurs in France, it occurs in Greece, in Italy, that is actually an enormous, large problem laying forward of us. And it’s not simply social media media retailers. There are additionally many operations of diplomats, official diplomats within the embassies in our international locations.
The Cipher Transient: And do you see that individuals are waking as much as it, or individuals are objecting to it in any means?
Dzurinda: Not sufficiently. It is extremely patchy. For some folks, it’s simpler to imagine in such catchy situations.
The Cipher Transient:And more often than not these situations are very emotional.
Dzurinda: Not solely emotional, but additionally linked or associated to your difficulties. In a free world, you haven’t solely the winners, you have got additionally folks which can be dissatisfied and even individuals who misplaced quite a bit – and propaganda, disinformation, particularly from the Kremlin, could be very, very efficient to handle, to achieve out to those folks.
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